A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
